In his classic "No Silver Bullets" paper in 1986, Fred Brooks claimed that the "accidents" of software development had been substantially addressed. He used the word "accident" in the Aristotelian sense, meaning tasks not inherently essential to programming like waiting for a program to compile. We were getting close to the being limited only by the essential tasks, where the limit is the human mind. I wonder how he might amend his views had he known how enterprise Java would introduce one bad accident after another to the profession. Fortunately, I think things are turning around.
The contrast between accident and essence came into sharp relief to me recently because of two things that happened one day. The first was when a colleague mentioned to me that he had wasted half a day trying to get Maven to build our application. He wasn't changing the build system: all he wanted to do was check out the latest code, build it, and work on it in Eclipse. This took literally hours to get working. The second thing was that I had been working on a personal project based on Grails.